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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.