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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.